College Football Picks: Week 9

Welcome back! We are coming off a nice 4-2 weekend in college football, including a 3-leg team total parlay winner. This brings our season record to 18-12 heading into week 9. We have a number of fun ones on the schedule today, so let's get right to it:

Notre Dame at Navy: Notre Dame Team Total Over 41.5 (12pm ET) Sorry Navy, but I'm not expecting this one to be close. Last year, the Irish won this matchup by a final score of 49-10. Notre Dame is also coming off their first loss of the season, so this is a prime smackdown spot. Navy has also lost 5 of their last 6. Shop around because some books have the UND team total at 42.5 and they are on the road this year. Ultimately though, UND scoring 45+ feels likely.

Stanford at Louisville: Game Total Over 60.5 (3:15pm ET) Stanford has given up at least 35 points in all 3 road games they've played this season. This includes a dreadful two-week stretch in early October in which they allowed 115 points combined. Stanford's offense has been poor on the road, so I also considered Louisville's hefty team total here (41.5). But the Louisville defense has only allowed fewer than 26 points to opponents in 2 of 7 games this year. I think we see plenty of scoring in this one.

Arizona State at BYU: BYU -16.5 (3:30pm ET) I considered a few different angles in this one, before settling on BYU winning by 20+. The Cougars are coming off their first loss of the season, a double overtime thriller at Central Florida. After dropping to #8 in the polls, this a major focus spot, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Meanwhile, ASU hasn't been able to win back-to-back games all season, giving up an average of 52 points in their three losses thus far. I like BYU here.

Ohio State at USC: USC Team Total Under 22.5 (7:30pm ET) Rain in LA??? Hopefully, that's not a sign of the apocalypse, but this is the current forecast. I was considering OSU laying just 6.5 on the road, but decided to take the Trojans team total under. This one is a little bit scary, as USC does have a potent offense. But the OSU defense has been absolutely dominant this season, giving up more than 19 points only once, and that was a month and a half ago against UT. And as we know, defense travels. Toss in the unusual weather conditions for a USC squad used to playing in sunshine, and I think they slow down tonight. If this number gets up to 23.5 or 24.5, even better.

Mississippi State at Texas: Texas -20.5 (7:30pm ET) After a 4-0 start to the season for Mississippi State, they've now dropped 3 straight in October, getting blown out against Alabama and LSU, and then earning a more respectable loss at home versus Oklahoma last week. But I don't see them scoring enough to keep up with the Longhorns here. This feels like a brutal scheduling spot for their defense as well. Texas already has 2 losses on the season, and they know the impact that a third one could have on their playoff hopes. This is nearly a 3-touchdown spread for good reason. I'd back Texas or stay away.

Bonus ML Parlay: Odds at +184 Arizona at Texas Tech: Texas Tech ML, -166 (12pm ET) Florida at Georgia: Georgia ML, -450 (3:30pm ET) Army at Memphis: Memphis ML, -220 (8pm ET)

As always, feedback, comments, and picks are welcome.

Happy Saturday and Happy Halloween!

Zach