College Football Picks: Week 4

Welcome JABO community! It's time to start sharing weekly picks in college football. I always take a few weeks to get into handicapping CFB for the year to get a better sense of how teams are performing compared to pre-season expectations, assess new coaching hires, see what's happening with the transfer portal, and more. I will generally try to get picks posted and emailed by Friday afternoon, but my work schedule sometimes prevents this. In such situations, I'll aim to have those sent out by Saturday morning, a couple of hours before the 9am/12pm games kick off. Yesterday, we started out 1-0 with the under in Army vs. Temple, which started at 4pm ET, and unfortunately, I couldn't get that sent out in time. Going forward, if I need to blast out a solo pick for a pre-Saturday game, I'll do that by Thursday evening. Additionally, with extreme weather conditions hitting most of the Northeast today, I am ignoring all games in that region. Wind alerts are everywhere and many areas are anticipating severe rain. Let's get into it!

1. Texas at Tennessee: Over 54.5 (12pm ET)

• This seems like a very fair total, especially given that Tennessee has yet to score fewer than 42 points nearly a month into the season. This week will be a major step up in class against a strong Texas defense, but I think both sides move the ball relatively effectively in this one.

1. Notre Dame at Purdue: Notre Dame Team Total Over 40.5 (2pm ET)

• I'm a big fan of team totals in CFB. Purdue just gave up 52 points last week to UCLA! I expect Notre Dame to do whatever they want offense.

1. Central Michigan at Miami Florida: Miami Team Total Over 48.5 (6:30pm ET)

• Another team total and one of the biggest mismatches of week 4. Central Michigan hasn't faced any opponent that's close to The Hurricanes yet, and now going on the road, I expect a blowout. 7 touchdowns is a lot, but I think Miami could hit 28-35 points by half-time.

1. Texas A&M at LSU: LSU -8.5 (7:30pm ET)

• This is a great bounce back spot for the Tigers in Baton Rouge, after a tough loss at Ole Miss in week 3. I think Lane Kiffin will have his squad prepared for a very successful outing. I suspect this line gets closer to 10 by gametime, so if you like LSU, grab them sooner.

1. Bonus Parlay: Colorado at Baylor (12pm ET) and Minnesota at Washington (11pm ET)

• I like Baylor ML and Washington Alt Line -6.5 at near even money (-103).

While not an official play, I think we'll see a lot of points in Ole Miss at Florida Over 58.5 (3:30pm ET). A final score in the vicinity of 35-28 seems plausible.

I also think Iowa at Michigan (3:30pm ET) will be a dogfight between a pair of top 10 defenses. However, Vegas has wisely set the total at a ridiculously low 38.5, making the Under a solid, but tough to stomach play. But I lean toward a final around 21-17.

Who do you like today? Feel free to share plays you feel good about. Comments are always welcome and appreciated.

Good luck!

Zach