NBA Round 1 Predictions

Playoffs?  You kidding me?

• The infamous Jim Mora

Well, we finally reached spring, and you NBA junkies know what that means! 

In this article, I'll be giving out my picks for every playoff matchup. In a follow up, I'll offer my selections for the three All-NBA teams, as well as 10 honorable mentions, and a few thoughts on the NBA regular season.

A quick word about the play-in tournament: Despite my initial reservations, I must admit it's been a rousing success and has added some drama to awarding the final two playoff spots in each conference. We saw phenomenal endings and unexpected heroics from Coby White, Al Horford, Jalen Green, VJ Edgecombe, Desmond Bane, and Draymond Green, who's strip on Kawhi Leonard essentially sealed the win for the Warriors. We also got to see a vintage second half from Steph Curry, who finished with 35 points after a lethargic first half. Please enjoy this guy while you can. He's the most entertaining basketball player we've had since Michael Jordan.

On the flip side, LaMelo Ball continued his run as one of the most polarizing players of his generation, hitting some ridiculous shots against Miami but also tripping Bam Adebayo in an unnecessary move that should've resulted in a suspension. Maybe it was karma that Charlotte got destroyed by Orlando in game 2. The Magic redeemed themselves with a complete beatdown and nobody needed it more than Paolo Banchero, who continues to flirt with superstar status but hasn't quite got there yet (way too many turnovers and poor shot selection). The Phoenix Suns also showed ups and downs in blowing game 1 against Portland, but then knocking out Golden State in game 2, disappointing millions of fans all over the world.

Finally, we have Tyronn Lue, who, with the likely retirement of Doc Rivers, takes over the title of most overrated coach in the NBA. Seriously, do we have any evidence that he's an effective coach other than the Cleveland title that was essentially orchestrated by prime Lebron James? The Clippers disappoint every single year, despite having plenty of talent. This includes Wednesday's choke job against the Warriors. The same guy who designed the Dwyane Wade statue should concoct a small bronze trophy of Rivers, to pass around annually, that comes with a pull-out chord to shout excuses for playoff failures in a voice that resembles a Muppet with laryngitis.

Eastern Conference Round 1 Picks:

Detroit over Orlando in 6 games - I considered 5, but this Pistons squad is relatively inexperienced in big games. Cade Cunningham has been awesome, but their offense can really stall when he's not hot. I don't think it matters much against Orlando, which has its own issues generating offense, but keep an eye on this in later rounds. Still, it would be a shocker if Detroit lost.

Boston over Philadelphia in 5 games - Other than the OKC series, this is the most likely sweep of round 1. I know it's a historic rivalry and Philly will certainly be up for this series. But they arguably have a disadvantage at every position on the court, except for Tyrese Maxey, who dominated their play-in win and continues to inch closer to truly elite status. However, I don't see any scenario where they can stop Boston from scoring, either inside or on the perimeter. The Sixers could get game 3 or 4 at home if Maxey goes bonkers, but this should be a quick series whether we see Joel Embiid or not. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum have owned Philly their entire careers. Let's move on.

New York over Atlanta in 7 games - I suspect there's no way the Knicks wanted to see Atlanta in round 1. They are younger, hungry, and more athletic. Jalen Johnson has become a stud, and they have a lot of weapons. I think this series comes down to New York having a potential game 7 at MSG. Jalen Brunson will have a ton on his shoulders this series, but he's still the best shot maker out there. The Knicks will advance, but barely...

Cleveland over Toronto in 7 games - I considered an upset here. On paper, this series shouldn't be close. But Toronto matched up incredibly well with Cleveland during the regular season. Donovan Mitchell is the best closer in this series, but I don't fully trust his two best running mates. Evan Mobley is a good player, but his defensive efforts carry much more weight than his up-and-down scoring and rebounding numbers. And then we have James Harden, who gets his 75th chance to show he can deliver in the playoffs and isn't just a phenomenal regular season pick up player (tbd)...

Western Conference Round 1 Picks:

OKC over Phoenix in 4 games - Phoenix doesn't have the horses to compete in this series. They'll get one explosive game from Jalen Green, one inexplicably good game from Grayson Allen, 4 solid but unexceptional games from Devin Booker, and a lot of barking from instigator Dillon Brooks. OKC has advantages all over the court, and in the coaching department. The Thunder are focused and looking to become the first repeat NBA champs since the Curry/KD led Warriors. They will face obstacles, but not in round 1.

San Antonio over Portland in 5 games - The Blazers compete, and they have a real gamer in Deni Avdija, who dominated the Suns in their play-in victory. But the Spurs look like a potential juggernaut. Victor Wembanyama's biggest test will be staying healthy throughout the playoffs. The Spurs have exceptional guard play, depth, and a ferocious defense led by Wemby and rising superstar, Stephon Castle. I'll give Portland one game at home, and I expect at least one shining moment from veteran Jrue Holiday.

Denver over Minnesota in 6 games - Crazy how matchups can impact the fortunes of so many this time of year. I would pick either Denver or Minnesota to advance rather easily over either team in the 4 vs 5 matchup. I doubt Denver wanted to mix it up with a physical Timberwolves squad, but I don't see them losing. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray lead a veteran, battle-tested Nuggets team that has more depth than in recent years. Anthony Edwards will get his, but I don't see Minnesota having enough to advance. We should see several close games, but I trust the Denver infrastructure much more to close it out.

Houston over LA in 5 games - What do we make of this series?  Houston still has not gelled the way many expected.  On paper, they should roll, with Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, and Amen Thompson leading the way against a Lakers team missing both Luka Doncic and Austin Reeves. Could Doncic return at some point?  Perhaps, but if they are already down 3-1 with OKC looming in round two, I suspect LA ownership keeps him out. I actually feel bad for Lebron James in this one. He shouldn't have to do it alone at this stage. At least we get to see James and Durant match up one more time in the spring. Like with Curry, appreciate these guys while you can.

And finally, we close with rapid fire picks for the rest of the post-season. I'll get more detailed posts up for each new round as we learn the actual playoff matchups.

Round 2:

Detroit over Cleveland in 7 games Boston over New York in 6 games (with Tatum leading the way with a triple-double in MSG, where he went down with an Achilles injury last year)

OKC over Houston in 5 games Denver over San Antonio in 7 games (with Joker outbattling Wemby in the best second round playoff series)

Eastern and Western Conference Finals:

Boston over Detroit in 6 games

OKC over Denver in 7 games 

• IF the Spurs hang on to meet Denver, I think they beat OKC in an upset.

NBA Finals:

Boston over OKC in 7 games. I think OKC will have a more grueling battle in the conference finals than Boston.  I expect the Celtics to find just enough offense from their supporting guys to outlast the Thunder in what should be the best NBA finals in years.

• I've now correctly picked the NBA champs each of the last 3 years (Denver, Boston, and OKC). Hoping to keep the streak going.

Enjoy!

Zach