NFL Championship Weekend!!!

And then, there were four. Let's face it - these were not the four teams that ANYBODY was expecting to reach the Super Bowl going in to the 2025-26 season. Still, for all its decision-making flaws, credit the NFL for establishing true parity. It adds excitement and prevents situations like the Dodgers opening at an unappealing +220 to win the World Series and only +120 to win the National League following the Kyle Tucker signing. Bananas!

But for now, football season is still here and with massive snow storms expected to pummel much of the country, it's the perfect weekend to put on sweat pants, crack open another beer, and enjoy your Sunday afternoon (so long as power outages don't take out our TVs, in which case heads are gonna roll).

Time to keep the successful playoff run going, as anyone following picks from the last two articles should be free-rolling now. Feel free to comment anytime with questions or to post your own picks and I'll be sure to respond. Ok, here we go!

SUNDAY:

The Patriots -4.5 at the Broncos (O/U of 42.5): New England heads to Denver in a matchup between the top two seeds in the AFC. It's never easy to win a road game in the playoffs, but as everyone has heard by now, there's a major variable potentially impacting this one. Denver's starting quarterback, Bo Nix, broke his ankle in overtime against the Bills. Just a brutal to an otherwise excellent season for the second year starter. Drake Maye is now in the driver's seat, facing back up Jarrett Stidham, who was ironically drafted by the Patriots back in 2019. Of more importance is the fact that Stidham hasn't actually started an NFL game since the end of the 2023 season. He will be well-rested at least.

The Pats are never a team to look ahead or take an opponent lightly, and that should be the case this weekend. If their defense continues to dominate like it has the last two weekends, Stidham could be in for a tough afternoon. Of course, Sean Payton may not put the game entirely in his hands either, and will likely opt for a run heavy attack to keep the chains (and the game clock) moving. Denver wants an ugly game, an exhausting battle that will result in a one possession game late in the fourth quarter. However, Maye and the Patriots offense survived against the Chargers, one of the league's best defenses, and then dominated the Texans, puting up 28 points, with Maye responsible for three touchdown passes to DeMario Douglas, Stefon Diggs, and Kayshon Boutte, who made the catch of the weekend.

The Denver crowd will be relentless, but Maye, despite a number of mistakes in recent weeks, always seems poised in big moments. I think we see more of that this weekend. Take the Patriots -4.5.

Bonus Props:

• I like tight end Hunter Henry to go over 3.5 receptions. He's been relatively quiet in the postseason so far, but with Denver focused on getting to Maye early to keep him out of a rhythm, I expect more short passes and dump offs than long bombs this weekend.
• Rhamondre Stevenson props are also worth a look to me. I love the veteran running back to go over a very reasonable 2.5 receptions.

The Rams +2.5 at the Seahawks (O/U of 46.5): It's very hard to go against Seattle in this one, especially coming off a blow out win over another divisional, rival, the 49ers. They've been consistently excellent all season and earned their top seed in the NFC. The Rams, meanwhile, have had to fight for their lives two weeks in a row, narrowly escaping Chicago last weekend in a game they arguably should have lost at the end of regulation and in overtime. I'm still not quite sure why the Bears, playing with house money, opted NOT to go for two to win it in the final 18 seconds of regulation. But they played it safe, the Rams advanced, and here we are.

I would lean heavier on Seattle, except for two major variables. One was the recent loss of running back, Zach Charbonnet, who will miss the rest of the season following an ACL tear. This makes the Seahawks offensive attack a little bit more predictable and I expect the Rams to emphasize stopping Kenneth Walker III early in this one. The second is the fact that Matthew Stafford is a better and more experienced QB than Sam Darnold, who has an up-and-down history. Still, this is the biggest game of his life, and with the Seattle crowd energizing him, we should see Darnold leave it all on the field, despite his current "questionable" status for Sunday.

It's gonna be a tight game and the NFC Championship could come down to which team has the ball in the closing minutes. If Seattle has the ball late, expect them to burn clock, keep the rushing attack moving forward, and prevent Stafford from having a chance to beat them. And their defense will be hungry to keep the momentum going. At +3.5, I'd be more inclined to pick the Rams. But at less than a field goal, take the Seahawks.

Bonus Props:

• I like pretty much all things, Jaxon Smith-Njigba. In two earlier games this year against LA, Seattle's star wideout compiled 17 receptions for 201 yards. I don't think the Rams have an answer here. I'm taking JSN over 89.5 yards and over 6.5 receptions. I think it's incredibly likely that he hits at least one of those, if not both.

Bonus Weekend Parlay: Seahawks & Patriots ML (+155 on FanDuel). Yup, we're running it back. This same bet hit last weekend and I again love the idea of eliminating spreads from the equation. And if the Pats represent the AFC, you'll have time to decide whether to hedge your bet, getting points with the Rams in the Sunday night game.

Good luck this weekend!

Zach