NFL Divisional Round Picks

Well, we survived a truly wild, Wild Card round (see what I did there?). It was a loaded weekend that began with the heavily favored Rams narrowly escaping Carolina, and closed with an old fashioned smackdown as the Texans defense overwhelmed the Steelers in the fourth quarter on Monday night. In between, we saw the Packers inexplicably blow a 21-3 half-time lead in Chicago (they were up 21-6 entering the fourth), Josh Allen end the Jaguars surprising season with a rushing touchdown to take the lead for good with only a minute remaining, and the Patriots defense smother Justin Herbert all night in Foxborough. As we watched our hometown Pats pull away late, I told my Dad that the Chargers actually have a talented receiving core. But he wouldn’t have known it from that game, as the New England secondary prevented any Charger from exceeding 32 receiving yards. Awesome!

And now, on to the Divisional round. We have four games this weekend and while they should be competitive, there is a hint of collective sadness in the air as fans come to that slow, familiar realization that football season is almost over. But hey, it’s not all bad news; after all, the ultra-competitive, defense-focused NBA All-Star game is right around the corner…..

Time to break down the Saturday and Sunday games: Here's how I'd play them:

SATURDAY:

The Bills +1.5 at the Broncos (O/U of 45.5): What do we make of this game? The public is on Buffalo and it’s not entirely unexpected. Despite being the sixth seed in the AFC, Josh Allen is by far the best quarterback remaining in the playoffs, has come close to the Super Bowl a number of times, and seems able to propel Buffalo to wins even when little else is working. However, Denver is playing at home, where they went 8-1 this year, and the Broncos are the better defensive team by a significant margin. They are also entering the Divisional round with an extra week of rest, while Buffalo drew the short end of the stick, playing in the early game Saturday after playing Sunday the week before.

I do think Denver is a bit overrated for the top seed in the conference, but I also believe they should beat Buffalo. The Bills do not have a particularly good run defense and the Broncos have an exceptional pass rush. Bo Nix won’t have nearly as much heavy lifting to do as Allen. Last week, in a game that was nearly a coin flip, I wanted Allen over a Jags squad that felt like they’d already peaked. This week, I’ll take the Broncos on the Moneyline at a very reasonable price. If you can’t stomach backing Denver to win though, I also like their team total over 23.5 points.

The 49ers +7 at the Seahawks (O/U of 44.5): Saturday night features the only matchup between division opponents, as well as the biggest point spread of the weekend. I think it’s too big. San Francisco marched into Seattle the first week of the season and won 17-13. Their rematch came at season’s end, with the Seahawks defense stifling the 49ers, only giving up three points in Santa Clara. I picked San Francisco last week to cover against the Eagles and they ended up winning outright. I thought that spread was too big at +4.5, even against the defending Super Bowl champs. Whether you want to credit the 49ers or slam the dysfunctional Eagles is up to you. But I still don’t think Brock Purdy gets enough credit, and in a game like this, I think I’d prefer having him to Sam Darnold at less than 100% (Darnold is now dealing with a new oblique injury).

I don’t count myself among Darnold’s critics though. He’s been great all year, aided by a solid rushing attack and wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who by any calculation, is now one of the top five receivers in football. Seattle has done nothing to diminish an exceptional 14-3 regular season record. But at the end of the day, I expect a close game here. Seattle should win at home in an unforgiving environment, but I think San Francisco covers once again. If you can get them +7.5, that’s preferable. My favorite way to play Seattle would be to take them Moneyline in a parlay (scroll down to the bottom for that pick).

SUNDAY:

The Texans +3 at the Patriots (O/U of 40.5): Last weekend, New England and Houston both shut down offenses that probably had no business making the postseason. Neither allowed a touchdown either, a very impressive feat this time of year. I was somewhat startled by the Patriots pass rush and floored by their secondary, which gave perhaps their best performance of the entire season. But their defense doesn't quite match Houston’s, which is a nightmare for opponents right now. Both teams also come into this game scorching hot. The Texans haven’t lost a game since the start of November, while the Patriots have won 14 of their last 15! Unbelievable.

In a three-point game though, I would rather have the home team, especially following the news that Houston will be without their best receiver, Nico Collins, who exited last weekend’s game against Pittsburgh with a concussion. Could I see Houston advancing? Absolutely, but I trust the infrastructure in New England. And this time, Houston won’t be facing an immobile, aging quarterback. Instead, they will be facing Drake Maye, who has exceeded all expectations and become a legitimate MVP candidate. At -3 or less, I’d rather back New England. If you can stomach laying the juice to get them at -2.5, that may be the best play.

The Rams -3.5 at the Bears (O/U of 48.5): Forget the spread in this one; give me the over 48.5. It will be cold but clear on Sunday evening in Chicago and I’m expecting points on both sides. If you’d rather take a team total, I definitely like the Rams to score over 26.5 points in this one. I just don’t see the Chicago defense keeping them out of the end zone. The Rams survived, having to pull a rabbit out of their hat to beat the surprisingly frisky Panthers last weekend. Meanwhile, the Bears are riding high following one of the more improbable seasons in recent NFL history. They pulled off another shocker last week, battling back in the fourth in dramatic fashion, leading thousands of fans to wonder if Matt LaFleur will actually be back to coach the cheese heads next season after some incomprehensible play-calling down the stretch. However, I don’t think the Bears will be that lucky against Sean McVay.

Similar to the Buffalo/Denver game, I am hoping for an outcome that goes against my common sense. I picked Denver, but would rather see the Bills, and particularly Josh Allen, advance. Here, I can’t actually pick against the Rams, but I’m rooting for the Bears and their fanbase, which has dealt with an endless parade of poor quarterbacks for years before choosing Caleb Williams first overall in the 2024 draft. I was impressed with a number of throws he made last week, and this game means so much more to Chicago as a city than it does Los Angeles. Still, if the Bears move on to the NFC championship game, I can’t help but think something really odd happened.

Bonus Weekend Parlay: Seahawks & Patriots ML (+105 Draft Kings). I love being able to eliminate the spreads in this one. I expect both to move on, but if you’re afraid of Houston winning in Foxborough, you can swap out New England for the Rams at slightly less attractive odds (-106).

Good luck this weekend!

Zach