NFL Regular Season Thoughts and Wild Card Weekend Picks

Hey everybody!  Sincere apologies for being unavailable for a while - I had some personal circumstances to address. I'm hoping to add content far more regularly from this point on. But, for now, it's time to get psyched, because it's the NFL playoffs!  And seriously, what a weird season it took to get here. Here are just a few of the highlights (and lowlights):
The Jets failed to intercept a single pass all season. I'm not even sure how that's possible.
The Cowboys gave away Micah Parsons to the Packers for a bucket of chicken. In related news, Dallas missed the playoffs again.
The Chiefs, Lions, and Ravens ALL missed the postseason. Who had that on their bingo card before the season began?
Mike McDaniel made it through a seventh complete season with Miami before ownership realized, "Yah, maybe he's not the right guy for this job..."
The Colts started out 7-1 before somehow finishing 8-9 and relegated to watching the playoffs from home. I feel bad for quarterback Daniel Jones, who tore his Achilles in early December, but Indianapolis had started a major slide long before that happened.
The Falcons, who never seem to win games they actually should, somehow impacted the playoffs by beating the Saints in week 18, and propelling Carolina into a division champion.
The Titans, Cardinals, Giants, and Raiders pretty much finished as people thought they would, totaling 16 wins among the four of them. The new John Harbaugh sweepstakes should be interesting. And honestly, the Bengals need to throw their hat into the Harbaugh ring as well. It's time for some major changes in Cincinnati.
The Patriots, under Mike Vrabel, went 14-3, surpassing even the most optimistic preseason expectations, and displaced the Bills from their position atop the AFC East.
The NFC West announced itself as, BY FAR, the best division in football. The Seahawks, Rams, and 49ers combined for a nearly 75% winning percentage. Unbelievable!
The Broncos won the typically competitive AFC West behind a tremendous defense and a young quarterback, Bo Nix, who continues to improve every week.
And on the opposite end of the spectrum, we have the Browns, who were 3-12 entering weeks 17 and 18 and thought that would be the right time of year to start a winning streak. They finished 5-12 and dropped fours spots in the draft. Same old story in Cleveland - Myles Garrett dominated (and broke the all-time sack record), while the offense threw a parade any time they cracked 14 points. Poor Cleveland fans...
But now, let's get to Wild Card Weekend!  With the Broncos and Seahawks earning first round byes, we have six games over the next three days and nights. Here's how I'd play them:
SATURDAY:
The Rams -10.5 at the Panthers (O/U of 46.5): Vegas is so tricky sometimes. They know that offering the Rams -9.5 would be hammered by bettors from coast to coast. 10.5 is a lot more difficult to be confident in. Still, if I'm backing a side, it would be the Rams. I just don't see any way to back the Panthers, although I suppose there's back door cover potential if LA is up 17 with four minutes to go. But proceed with caution. I think I'd prefer the Rams alternate team total (O 23.5 points) in a parlay with another team total I like (perhaps the Bears or Patriots). It's tough for me to see the Panthers keeping the Rams below 27-30 points with Matthew Stafford slinging the ball to his offensive arsenal.
The Packers -1.5 at the Bears (O/U of 44.5): Let's keep this short and sweet. I like the Over 44.5, which seems like a very reasonable figure here. It may rain in Chicago, so don't be surprised to see a healthy mix of the run game on both sides. But I'm not particularly confident in either defense stopping the opponent. I think Green Bay is the better team, but it's very hard to know if this Bear's team is for real or not following a very successful season in which they went 7-2 in one score games. So instead of a side, I'd just bet the over, going up to 46.5 but no higher.
SUNDAY:
Bills -1.5 at the Jaguars (O/U of 51.5): This feels like a stay away, but if forced to pick, I'd just go with the Over 51.5. I think it's worth buying the extra point to get to 50.5, as 51 is a very key number for totals in the NFL. In terms of side, everything inside me is telling me to ride Jacksonville, even though I'd rather have Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen than any other two players on the field. Would I be shocked if Buffalo advanced and this was finally the year Allen got his squad over the hump?  Not at all, but this is a tough first round matchup. I expect this to be a tight and back-and-forth offensive game.
49ers +4.5 (44.5) at the Eagles (O/U of 44.5): Give me the points with San Francisco. I thought this would be closer to a pick 'em or a -2.5 spread in Philly's favor. 4.5 feels disrespectful to the 49ers after going 12-5, even with a few key players questionable for Sunday. The list includes OT Trent Williams (a major loss if he can't go) and TE George Kittle. Weather conditions seem ok on Sunday and all things being equal, I trust Kyle Shanahan more than Nick Sirianni, even with the Super Bowl pedigree. I expect Philadelphia to squeak by, but I'd rather have the 4.5 points in my pocket with the Niners.
Chargers +3.5 at the Patriots (O/U of 46.5): Another sneaky line Vegas... I'd be all over the Pats -2.5. At more than a field goal, that gives me pause. I think the Patriots are a better team, and the LA-based Chargers coming into Foxborough in the middle of January is going to be a tough environment to thrive in. However, Vrabel is often conservative in his decision-making and I suspect points will be at a premium in this one. I don't see him going for it too often on fourth and two if the Pats are within field goal range. I expect New England to advance and if forced to pick, I think it's more likely they win by a touchdown than it is for the Chargers to fly home happy. Save New England for my ML parlay at the bottom.
MONDAY:
Texans -3 at the Steelers (O/U of 46.5): I have people in my life who root hard for the Steelers, so I'm pulling for them. But Aaron Rodgers against THAT defense?  No thanks - Texans -3 feels very reasonable in this spot, as I just don't see the Steelers moving the ball with consistency in this one. The Texans have righted the ship following a slow start and haven't lost a game since November 2nd! Couple that with a slight potential letdown spot from Pittsburgh following a big week 18 victory over their rivals in Baltimore and knocking the Ravens out of the playoffs, and I just can't back them here.
Bonus Weekend Parlay: Rams, Pats, and Texans ML (currently +193 on Draft Kings)
If you're not completely sold on Houston here, you could back the Rams and Patriots both to win at reasonable odds (-128, or $128 to win $100).  I like adding the Texans, not only to secure much more appealing odds nearing +200, but also because it's potentially an easy hedge opportunity. Houston/Pittsburgh is the last game of Wild Card Weekend. If LA and New England take care of business as they are expected to to, it would be easy enough to back the Steelers getting a field goal on Monday night.
Enjoy the weekend!
Zach
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