AFC North Preview and Over/Under Picks

Continuing my NFL preview for the upcoming 2025-26 season, we arrive at the AFC North, always among the more competitive divisions in football. This year we should see a legitimate Super Bowl contender, a possible second contender (if they catch a few breaks), a storied franchise transitioning to the next chapter, and an ongoing punchline whose suffering fans deserve better.
Let’s dive in.
Baltimore Ravens: Predicted Record 12-5
That is a TOUGH schedule. On paper, the Ravens have the talent to go 14-3. But facing Buffalo, Detroit, and Kansas City in the opening month of the season could make things a little rocky from the jump. Still, their offense is spectacular, led by quarterback Lamar Jackson nearly won his third MVP award in 2024. Derrick Henry continues to be a beast and as reliable as almost any running back in the NFL. And my son just scored 5 touchdowns with Zay Flowers on me the other day in Madden ’25, for what it’s worth. They also added DeAndre Hopkins to a receiving core that includes ever-reliable tight end, Mark Andrews.
On the flip side, future hall-of-fame kicker Justin Tucker was awful last year (at least compared to his track record). Their secondary, while improved, will still have to prove itself. And John Harbaugh’s squad has a long history of being undisciplined in big moments. Is this finally the year that Baltimore gets over the hump? We know they’ll be good in the regular season; the only question is can they finally get back to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2013.
Recommendation: Baltimore OVER 11.5 wins (but barely)
Cincinnati Bengals: Predicted Record 9-8
What do we make of the Bengals? When healthy, they have arguably the top QB/WR duo in the league in Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. Their LSU connection has only deepened since become NFL stars. If Burrow can stay healthy for a full season, I believe he is a top 5 quarterback. Remember all those Burrow vs Trevor Lawrence debates?  It seems pretty silly now, kind of like how the Beatles and Monkees once fought for the same audience (cue everyone under 40 pulling up Google to look up the Monkees).
Still, beyond Cincinnati’s headliners, there are questions everywhere. Will their defense be able to stop anybody? They have a new defensive coordinator, so time will tell. Their offense will not be the problem, even with a mediocre rushing attack.  I suspect they find their way into the playoffs as a wild card in the AFC, but just barely.
Bonus Pick: Ja'Marr Chase O 9.5 TDs (-135 on ESPN Bet). Chase just needs a TD in 10 of 17 games to go over this number, although other books set the line at 10.5. Figuring he registers at least two multi-TD games throughout the season, this seems like a victory lap.
Recommendation: Cincinnati UNDER 9.5 (But a very sharp line – I’m not touching it)
Pittsburgh Steelers: Predicted Record 8-9
This one is tough, and bucks a trend I’ve been riding nearly every single year. It is well known that Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record during his tenure as head coach of the Steelers. I have loads of confidence in Tomlin; I have less in emerging senior citizen Aaron Rodgers and an offensive line that struggled in 2024. If they can protect Rodgers consistently, that may be the difference between finishing 7-10 and 10-7, although this remains to be seen. In a way, Pittsburgh is the polar opposite of Cincinnati; they are disciplined and their defense will keep them in every game, but whether they can consistently put 17-21 points on the board will determine whether they sniff the postseason. Derrick Harmon, their first round pick out of Oregon, should add more depth to one of the league’s best defenses.
Still, Tomlin has brought this team to the playoffs regularly despite a revolving parade of below average quarterbacks since Ben Roethlisberger. Starting strong will be key to Pittsburgh’s hopes this season, as their post-Thanksgiving schedule will include four tough matchups against teams with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations.
Recommendation: Pittsburgh UNDER 8.5 wins (However, I can’t actually bet against Tomlin – this is the definition of a stay away)
Cleveland Browns: Predicted Record 4-13
Is there a group of fans we should feel worse for in all of professional sports than the Browns? I lived outside of Cleveland for a number of years and the passion that this city feels for their football team is genuine. Unfortunately, a parade of idiotic roster and financial decisions have derailed an unusually promising season back in 2023 when they inexplicably went 11-6. The better bet is that this Browns squad will more closely resemble the 2024 team that went 3-14. Head coach Kevin Stefanski will have to navigate uncertainty each week, especially at QB. I suspect it won’t be too long before he tests rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders, especially if the season gets away from Cleveland by mid-October.
There is a real chance that the Browns don’t win a single game until an early November matchup against the Jets, and even that is a question mark. Hopefully, the NFL higher ups don’t suddenly decide it would be a wise move to move that one to NBC on Sunday Night. Cleveland’s best offensive weapon when healthy, running back Nick Chubb, signed with the Texans in the off-season. Defensive end and team leader, Myles Garrett, was just caught driving 100 mph in Cleveland, his eighth speeding citation in as many years. Does that matter on the field?  Not really, but it’s another needless distraction for a team that seems to pile them up in the Deshaun Watson era.
Cleveland fans, I’m rooting for you. But I just don’t see it.
Recommendation: Cleveland UNDER 4.5 wins (most confident pick in the AFC North)
Bonus Pick: AFC North Exact Finishing Order of Baltimore, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland (+300 on FanDuel).  If you are set on Baltimore winning the division and Cleveland bringing up the rear, this number is actually pretty reasonable. Worst case scenario, you can probably hedge on individual Cincy and Pittsburgh games starting the third week of December.
NEXT UP: AFC South Preview - Stay Tuned.
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