AFC East Preview and Over/Under Picks

Are you ready for some FOOTBALL!!! We are now less than a month away from the start of the 2025-26 NFL season, which opens with Dallas traveling to Philadelphia to take on the reigning Super Bowl champs. But before we get there, let's delve into predictions for the upcoming season.

I will be making regular season win total predictions for every team by division over the course of eight articles, starting today with the AFC East.

1. Buffalo Bills: Predicted Record 12-5

After a tough opening day matchup against Baltimore on Sunday Night Football, Buffalo's schedule gets really easy, really fast. They do not play an above-average team again until November 2nd when they host Kansas City. In between, they will see all three division opponents, plus bottom feeders New Orleans and Carolina. The only variable I see derailing Buffalo's regular season would be an unexpected injury to superstar quarterback, Josh Allen. With his size and athleticism, it's hard to see that happening, but should something weird take place, projections would change dramatically with Mitch Trubisky waiting in the wings. The Bills remain very sharp on offense, though they occasionally slip up defensively and are prone to engaging in shoot outs (usually to their advantage). They focused primarily on defensive needs through the draft, which was the right move. Under Sean McDermott, they have been consistently competitive; they just haven't figured out how to beat the Chiefs yet. Something tells me they are getting close.

Note: Buffalo currently sits at -270 to win the AFC East. The only other team above -150 odds to win their division is Baltimore. There's almost no value in picking the Bills to win the division now, unless you parlay them someone else to bring the bet to plus money.

Recommendation: Buffalo OVER 11.5 wins

1. New England Patriots: Predicted Record 9-8

The much improved Pats have one of the most accommodating schedules in the NFL this year. Other than Buffalo (who they will play twice) and Baltimore, every other game on their schedule seems winnable, with the best of the rest including Cincinnati and Tampa. There are a number of unknowns, including a number of coin flip games. But the first time in years, there is reason to be optimistic in New England, which made probably the biggest coaching improvement in the league, moving on from Jerod Mayo after one year (and that may have been about half a season too long), and replacing him with another former Patriot, Mike Vrabel. Vrabel found success in Tennessee despite an underwhelming roster, and seems capable of drastically improving one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Their secondary should be good, and on offense, the additions of Stefon Diggs, plus number four overall pick, offensive tackle Will Campbell from LSU, should combine to make life easier for Drake Maye. Maye showed real flashes as a rookie, and should benefit from the new pieces around him. Don't be surprised to see the second year QB make a major leap into the league's top half of starting quarterbacks.

Note: The Patriots are +175 on FanDuel to finish in second place in the AFC East. It's hard to see them keeping up with Buffalo, but they have enough talent now to finish solidly ahead of Miami and New York. I also like picking Buffalo to finish first and New England to finish second (+165 on ESPN Bet).

Recommendation: New England OVER 8.5 wins

1. Miami Dolphins: Predicted Record 6-11 Miami has the potential to be a dumpster fire this year, although their talented receiving core, led by Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, should continue to cause problems for opposing defenses. But their secondary will have trouble stopping any elite receivers and their running game looks to be moderate at best. Tua Tagovailoa, despite considerable talent, remains unhelped by a weak offensive line, and unfortunately, continues to suffer from concussions, which makes his on-field status a lingering question mark. I have never been a big fan of head coach, Mike McDaniel, who seems to consistently make questionable decisions when the games get tense. I'm actually surprised Miami's regular season win total sits as high as it does. I just can't expect them to be better than .500 this year. Around week 10, I think it's a much safer bet that the Dolphins will be jockeying for draft position versus competing for a playoff spot.

Recommendation: Miami UNDER 8.5 wins

1. New York Jets: Predicted Record 5-12

Ahhhhh, the Jets. What else can we say? When you're the third best professional football team in your home state and one of the other two is the Giants, you know things aren't looking great. New York has a very weak schedule, which is the only factor that has me wavering between 5-12 and 6-11. But there is potential for the Jets to be simply awful. They found a quarterback who shouldn't create any drama in Justin Fields, although his production on the field is inconsistent at best. He's still a bigger running threat than he is throwing the football. Still, Fields may seem like a breath of fresh air after Aaron Rodgers, who is about as high maintenance a star athlete as we have among all four major sports. Head coach Aaron Glenn will be making his debut as head coach and will try to navigate what should be a bumpy season, especially with the unrelenting New York media. The Jets have talent on the roster, with Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, and Sauce Gardner, among others. But that won't be enough to be a legitimate threat to anyone.

Recommendation: UNDER 5.5 wins (I'm not betting this one, as they could easily sneak over the number against a Bills squad that will likely be resting their starters in week 18.

Bonus Pick: AFC East Exact Finishing Order of Buffalo, New England, Miami, and New York (+390 on FanDuel). I could see the Jets mucking up the bottom of the division though with Miami if things fall apart in South Beach.

NEXT UP: AFC North Preview - Stay Tuned.

Thanks for reading!